On Friday as we had mentioned in our notes, really the hell was cut loose for the nifty to open with a huge gap down of nearly 300 points and made one more new year low of 3199. With RBI reacted promptly to reduce further 100 basic points in CRR to inject another 40,000 crores liquidity market made some recovery move and finally closed at 3280.
Though the US market on Friday opened very weak, the way it has closed in the last hour of trading by a very good bounce brought some hope in global markets. With all the global players met and decide to take coordinated move to stabilize this ongoing turmoil has boosted the sentiment among the investors. Asian markets are trading the positive terrain. Japan market is closed for today.
Nifty is expected to open in a positive terrain, possibly it would be a gap up opening. As we had mentioned in the last update that all the global markets are due for a technical bounce back and same is expected in any time, we can expect it to happen this week. On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3386, 3433 or 3505 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 3187 or 3094 levels. The weekly support exists at 3046.
Happy Trading !
Monday, October 13, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
10 Oct'08: Hell Cut Loose
On Wednesday nifty opened with a huge gap down of around 150 points and went further down to make a new year low of 3330. Nifty broke all the major and minor support levels with a comfortable margin during the onset of panic among the traders. From the day’s low it bounced back to get resisted around the psychological level of 3500 and same been taken out during the last hour of the trading to close at 3513. Almost 150 points recovery from the day’s low had left the traders with some kind of hope on the Wednesday evening.
In spite of taking coordinated move by the major global banks to cut their interest rates to improve the liquidity, global markets doesn’t seems to take to cue and shown some sign of recovery. The US market once again took a blood bath yesterday and closed very very weak making the lowest levels in the past 5 years. Asian market has not failed to take the cue from the US market and opened with a very huge loss of around 7-10%.
Anything can happen in the Indian market today on both the directions. I feel the opening will be very weak with the gap down in line with our peer Asian markets. Don’t be surprised if the nifty tests the Wednesday’s low in the initial hours and in very worst case may be it can break 3330 level also. As all the global markets are due for a technical bounce back and same is expected in any time. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3385, 3330 or 3255 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3588 or 3662 levels. During panic and emotion based trading technical support and resistance has very little importance.
Happy Trading !
In spite of taking coordinated move by the major global banks to cut their interest rates to improve the liquidity, global markets doesn’t seems to take to cue and shown some sign of recovery. The US market once again took a blood bath yesterday and closed very very weak making the lowest levels in the past 5 years. Asian market has not failed to take the cue from the US market and opened with a very huge loss of around 7-10%.
Anything can happen in the Indian market today on both the directions. I feel the opening will be very weak with the gap down in line with our peer Asian markets. Don’t be surprised if the nifty tests the Wednesday’s low in the initial hours and in very worst case may be it can break 3330 level also. As all the global markets are due for a technical bounce back and same is expected in any time. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3385, 3330 or 3255 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3588 or 3662 levels. During panic and emotion based trading technical support and resistance has very little importance.
Happy Trading !
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
08 Oct'08: Uncertainty
Yesterday nifty opened gap up, which was short lived to fall eventually. During the fall nifty took support very very close to our mentioned support of 3539 and made day’s low at 3537. The trend was very choppy going up and down. During the day nifty broke the important support level of 3555 and in no time recovered above this level to close flat above 3600 at 3606.6. forming a doji in the daily chart. Doji signifies uncertainity among the traders which is exactly happening as people are very much confused with respect to the direction of the market.
Once again the US market took a blood bath yesterday and closed very weak with S&P 500 breaking the psychological level of 1000. Following the weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading very weak. Nifty is expected to open weak. Gap down of 50–100 cannot be ruled out.
As both weekly and daily charts gives signal of oversold, bounce back can be expected any time, if not today it may come in couple of sessions. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3559, 3518 or 3430 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3646 or 3714 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 3750. Hope nifty does not break March 2007 low of 3555 and psychological level of 3500.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Once again the US market took a blood bath yesterday and closed very weak with S&P 500 breaking the psychological level of 1000. Following the weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading very weak. Nifty is expected to open weak. Gap down of 50–100 cannot be ruled out.
As both weekly and daily charts gives signal of oversold, bounce back can be expected any time, if not today it may come in couple of sessions. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3559, 3518 or 3430 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3646 or 3714 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 3750. Hope nifty does not break March 2007 low of 3555 and psychological level of 3500.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
07 Oct'08: Hope for Bottom
Title of our yesterday’s notes best defines whatever that has happened yesterday. In line with our expectation nifty broke 3800 level comfortably in the huge gap down opening. During the downward momentum move, nifty took support near the mentioned level of 3648 and gave a brief pull up. Breaking all the support levels nifty entered sub 3600 level and closed above 3600 at 3602.
US market closed very weak on Monday with Dow closed below the important psychological level of 10000. In the last hour there was strong pull back in the US market indices to close around 3-4% down. Following the weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading very weak. Nifty is expected to open weak with mild gap down.
Yesterday also nifty heavy weight champion Reliance been hammered heavily which has damaged the sentiment among the investors. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3555, 3539 or 3476 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3707 or 3813 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 3970. Hope nifty does not break March 2007 low of 3555. On the back drop of RBI announcement to cut CRR by 50 points to 8.5% with effect from 11 Oct. 08 which is believed to increase the liquidity by 20000 crores and SEBI’s action with P-Notes, let us see how it impacts the melting down market.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
US market closed very weak on Monday with Dow closed below the important psychological level of 10000. In the last hour there was strong pull back in the US market indices to close around 3-4% down. Following the weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading very weak. Nifty is expected to open weak with mild gap down.
Yesterday also nifty heavy weight champion Reliance been hammered heavily which has damaged the sentiment among the investors. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3555, 3539 or 3476 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3707 or 3813 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 3970. Hope nifty does not break March 2007 low of 3555. On the back drop of RBI announcement to cut CRR by 50 points to 8.5% with effect from 11 Oct. 08 which is believed to increase the liquidity by 20000 crores and SEBI’s action with P-Notes, let us see how it impacts the melting down market.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Monday, October 6, 2008
06 Oct'08: More Fall
As per our last Friday’s note, the week ended by sending jitters among the traders. Nifty lost another 3.32% on Friday. On Friday, as we indicated nifty opened 50 points gap down and continued to fall during the day breaking all the supports in its way down towards 4800. During the day nifty has not breached 4800 level and closed above 4800 (4818).
US market closed very weak on Friday in spite of bail out package been cleared US congress. Clearance of the package by US congress was exactly as per our view on Friday. Following the weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading very weak. In harmony with global markets, nifty is also expected to open weak. Nifty breaking 4800 level at the opening itself cannot be ruled out.
With nifty heavy weight champion Reliance been hammered heavily on Friday, nifty seems to be vulnerable on the downside. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3759, 3699 or 3688 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3845 or 3923 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 4000. Ultimately this downward trend may take solid support near 200 week moving average of 3648 or March 2007 low of 3555.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
US market closed very weak on Friday in spite of bail out package been cleared US congress. Clearance of the package by US congress was exactly as per our view on Friday. Following the weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading very weak. In harmony with global markets, nifty is also expected to open weak. Nifty breaking 4800 level at the opening itself cannot be ruled out.
With nifty heavy weight champion Reliance been hammered heavily on Friday, nifty seems to be vulnerable on the downside. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3759, 3699 or 3688 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3845 or 3923 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 4000. Ultimately this downward trend may take solid support near 200 week moving average of 3648 or March 2007 low of 3555.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Friday, October 3, 2008
03 Oct'08: Weekend Jittery
On Wednesday as we have mentioned, nifty opened positive with 40 points up but could not sustain and eventually took nifty into the negative region. During the day nifty has tested both of our support and resistance levels which were mentioned in our last update. On the lower side, nifty made the day’s low at 3861 which was only few points away from the mentioned support of 3853. Similarly on the upper side, nifty made the day’s high at 4000.5 which is again very closer to our mentioned resistance level of 4009.
US market closed very weak on Thursday on the back of declining factory order report. Though the bailout package was passed by senate, its fate will be finalized by the US congress which is yet to pass the package. In my view, the package will be passed by the US congress also during the voting. Following the very weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading weak. In harmony with global markets, nifty is also expected to open weak. Even a gap down of 50-100 points or more cannot be ruled out.
On the lower side nifty may find support near 3875, 3858 or 3823 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 4013 or 4077 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 4000.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
US market closed very weak on Thursday on the back of declining factory order report. Though the bailout package was passed by senate, its fate will be finalized by the US congress which is yet to pass the package. In my view, the package will be passed by the US congress also during the voting. Following the very weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading weak. In harmony with global markets, nifty is also expected to open weak. Even a gap down of 50-100 points or more cannot be ruled out.
On the lower side nifty may find support near 3875, 3858 or 3823 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 4013 or 4077 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 4000.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
01 Oct'08: Technical Bounce Back
Welcome to the first trading session for the month of October. As we anticipated, nifty opened gap down in the range mentioned to make a new low of 3715. From the opening day’s low without any delay gave a sharp pull back which continued rest of the day. On its way up nifty went closer to our mentioned resistance level of 3978. More and more soothing words came from all direction which has pleased the nervous investors and the overall market. ICICI bank has recovered like anything from the losses it had incurred in the last couple of sessions.
US market made a “U” turn and recovered some of the Monday’s loss on news of alternate plan of the government for financial crisis bailout. But the credit crisis is still persisting in the Wall street. Taking cue from US, Asian markets also opened with a positive note. On back of positive US and Asian market cues, nifty may continue its bounce back course today also.
On the lower side nifty may find support at 3853 or 3768 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists at 4009, 4020 or 4078 levels. Though the overall trend is down, this leg of upward movement has to be watched closer for any signs of change in trend direction. If nifty closes above 3998 it adds strength to the upward momentum. Nifty may encounter strong resistance around 4040 levels, breaking of it may change the direction of short term trend.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Holiday: Tomorrow 2nd Oct.’08 is holiday for Bse-Nse Exchange.
Happy Trading !
US market made a “U” turn and recovered some of the Monday’s loss on news of alternate plan of the government for financial crisis bailout. But the credit crisis is still persisting in the Wall street. Taking cue from US, Asian markets also opened with a positive note. On back of positive US and Asian market cues, nifty may continue its bounce back course today also.
On the lower side nifty may find support at 3853 or 3768 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists at 4009, 4020 or 4078 levels. Though the overall trend is down, this leg of upward movement has to be watched closer for any signs of change in trend direction. If nifty closes above 3998 it adds strength to the upward momentum. Nifty may encounter strong resistance around 4040 levels, breaking of it may change the direction of short term trend.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Holiday: Tomorrow 2nd Oct.’08 is holiday for Bse-Nse Exchange.
Happy Trading !
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