There will be no update till we resume.
Happy Trading !
Monday, December 15, 2008
Friday, December 12, 2008
12 Dec'08: Over Bought
Yesterday nifty opened with a mild positive note. During the first half of the session nifty was trading in the negative terrain and very often tried to move into the positive side and failed. Also on the lower side nifty defended the 2900 level by sharply bouncing back. In the second half of the session nifty saw the selling pressure and sharply dived till the day’s low of 2861. The last hour of trading was marked with surprise like that of last session where nifty saw a very sharp pull back and closed almost flat. The last hour pull back was contributed by major heavy weights like Reliance Industries, etc. IT sector was hammered during the session. The Nifty high, low & close are as follows:
H: 2945 L: 2861 C: 2920
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2956 or 2993 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2873 or 2825 levels. If nifty can manage to break and stay above the first resistance level it may add more momentum to the nifty towards 3000 levels. Since nifty has entered the overbought level, correction may be expected in any time.
Happy Trading !
Thursday, December 11, 2008
11 Dec'08: Correction Pending
Yesterday nifty opened in the positive region as expected. During the initial hour nifty was testing the first resistance mentioned and same been broken eventually. Till the first half of the session nifty was trying to break past the second resistance level of 2901 but initially failed and corrected sharply till our first resistance level. In the last hour of trading there comes the surprise factor which resulted in the nifty taking support near our first resistance level and broke the second resistance level with a comfortable margin and closed at the day’s high. The Nifty high, low & close are as follows:
H: 2940 L: 2816 C: 2928
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2968 or 3019 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2849 or 2771 levels. If nifty can manage to break and stay above the first resistance which is the weekly resistance level it may add more momentum to the nifty. Profit booking may emerge at higher levels. Since nifty has entered the overbought level, correction may be expected in any time.
Happy Trading !
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
10 Dec'08: Stimulation Rally
On Monday nifty opened very strongly above 2800 backed by the rate cut by RBI and better inflation numbers. During the day nifty defended 2800 level but in the last hour of trade it fell very steeply below 2800 level and also closed below it. The Nifty high, low & close are as follows:
H: 2861 L: 2762 C: 2784
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2842 or 2901 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2744 or 2704 levels. If nifty can manage to break and stay above the first resistance which is very critical level it may add more momentum to the nifty. Profit booking may emerge at higher levels.
Happy Trading !
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Monday, December 8, 2008
Friday, December 5, 2008
05 Dec'08: Speculation Rally
As expected yesterday nifty opened with a mild positive note. During the first half of the day on the way up nifty got resisted around the mentioned resistance level of 2735 but during the second off nifty gave that surprise factor by breaking all the resistance and closed at the day’s high. Nifty is rallying on expectation of economic package or rate cut from RBI this weekend. It is to be noted that the inflation has come down to 8.40% from 8.84%. The Nifty high, low & close are as follows:
H: 2794 L: 2647 C: 2788
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2839 or 2889 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2692 or 2597 levels. Today would be the testing day for nifty. If nifty can manage to break and stay above the first resistance which is very critical level it may add more momentum to the nifty. Profit booking may emerge at higher levels.
Happy Trading !
Thursday, December 4, 2008
04 Dec'08: Confused N Uncertain
As expected yesterday nifty opened with a mild positive note and made the day’s high at the opening itself where it encountered profit booking. During the day the trend was very volatile and choppy around the previous day’s close level. The range of nifty was well within the mentioned support and resistance levels. It is interesting to note that the nifty has formed a doji in the daily charts which represents a level of confusion and uncertainty among the traders. The Nifty high, low & close are as follows:
H: 2693 L: 2612 C: 2656
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2696 or 2735 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2614 or 2572 levels. The genuinity of the
Happy Trading !
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
03 Dec'08: Surprise
As we had indicated yesterday nifty opened negative with a gap down of about 100 points to take out our first support level at the opening itself. As we know that when the nifty moves below a critical support level then the same level becomes resistance for it if it is trying to move up. In the same lines during the intraday nifty bounced back and tested our mentioned level of 2624 several times during the first half of the day and could not succeed. But in the second half of the session the surprise factor popped in which broke the mentioned level and taken nifty up to cover the gap created in the opening. Nifty high, low & close are as follows:
H: 2673 L: 2571 C: 2658
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
02 Dec'08: Nose Dive
Yesterday nifty opened positive and in the first half of the session it had tested the critical 50% retracement level of 2832 exactly beyond which it could not move. Nifty did tried to break that level couple of times and failed badly to fall in a nose dive fashion in the second half of the session where there was no turning back. From the day’s high nifty fell almost 5-6% and closed near the day’s low which has brought weakness in the daily charts and can trigger further downward movement. Compared to the Asian peers Europe market sold off heavily yesterday where their indices drop to around 5-6%.
There was a one more massive sell off in the US market which resulted in their indices loosing around 7-9% in a single session. Asian markets also have opened and trading weakly. In continuation of yesterday Nifty is expected to open weak and most possibly with a gap down.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2755 or 2839 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2624 or 2540 levels. Don’t be surprised if the first support level is taken out in the opening itself. Intraday surprises may be anticipated for the day.
Happy Trading !
There was a one more massive sell off in the US market which resulted in their indices loosing around 7-9% in a single session. Asian markets also have opened and trading weakly. In continuation of yesterday Nifty is expected to open weak and most possibly with a gap down.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2755 or 2839 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2624 or 2540 levels. Don’t be surprised if the first support level is taken out in the opening itself. Intraday surprises may be anticipated for the day.
Happy Trading !
Monday, December 1, 2008
Thursday, November 27, 2008
27 Nov'08: Expiry Day
As we had expected nifty opened mild positive with a small gap up yesterday. Hope you people experienced yet another volatile and surprise move in nifty. In the first half of the session nifty was trading sideways with ups and downs and in the second half it has not failed to give surprise. Yesterday the surprise was on the positive side unlike Tuesday where the surprise was on the downside. At last nifty closed close to the day’s high and very close to our mentioned resistance level of 2748.
With US market closed on Thursday and Friday, it closed strongly on Wednesday with its indices are almost 3-5% up. Asian markets also have opened and trading positive. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild positive. As today is the expiry day intraday volatility and surprises may be anticipated for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2795 or 2839 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2641 or 2560 levels. As nifty has closed very close to the crucial resistance level yesterday we have to see whether it could sustain above it. With US market closed for the next two days we have to see how nifty pan out once expiry is over today.
Happy Trading !
With US market closed on Thursday and Friday, it closed strongly on Wednesday with its indices are almost 3-5% up. Asian markets also have opened and trading positive. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild positive. As today is the expiry day intraday volatility and surprises may be anticipated for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2795 or 2839 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2641 or 2560 levels. As nifty has closed very close to the crucial resistance level yesterday we have to see whether it could sustain above it. With US market closed for the next two days we have to see how nifty pan out once expiry is over today.
Happy Trading !
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
26 Nov'08: Expiry Drama
As we had expected nifty opened strongly with a gap up yesterday. The day’s high created at the opening became a formidable resistance for nifty. Nifty tested the day’s high resistance once and not succeeding to break it, the nifty fell in a unidirectional fashion to close at the day’s low. As we had anticipated there were intraday volatility and surprises which are part of expiry week drama.
US market closed almost mixedly flat. Asian markets also have opened and trading mixed. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild positive. Intraday volatility and surprises may be anticipated for the day as this being the expiry week.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2748 or 2841 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2599 or 2544 levels. It is to be noted that as tomorrow being the expiry day nifty will be entirely under the control of operators who can move and take nifty anywhere they want in the charts.
Happy Trading !
US market closed almost mixedly flat. Asian markets also have opened and trading mixed. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild positive. Intraday volatility and surprises may be anticipated for the day as this being the expiry week.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2748 or 2841 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2599 or 2544 levels. It is to be noted that as tomorrow being the expiry day nifty will be entirely under the control of operators who can move and take nifty anywhere they want in the charts.
Happy Trading !
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
25 Nov'08: More Pull Back
Yesterday nifty opened weak neglecting to take the cue from the US market. The intraday movements are market with volatile sharp ups and downs which are not abnormal during the expiry weeks. Every rise close to our mentioned resistance level got liquidated by selling pressure. Overall it was a choppy narrow band volatile session.
Once again US market closed strongly with their indices around 5-7% up on the news about bailout of Citigroup and following this Asian markets also have opened and trading strongly in positive region. Nifty is also expected to open positive positively with a gap up. Intraday volatility may be anticipated for the day as this being the expiry week.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2754 or 2800 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2648 or 2588 levels. The ongoing pull back may be expected to continue at least for a day or two. It is to be noted that any strong pull back may find resistance near 2832- 2852 levels.
Happy Trading !
Once again US market closed strongly with their indices around 5-7% up on the news about bailout of Citigroup and following this Asian markets also have opened and trading strongly in positive region. Nifty is also expected to open positive positively with a gap up. Intraday volatility may be anticipated for the day as this being the expiry week.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2754 or 2800 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2648 or 2588 levels. The ongoing pull back may be expected to continue at least for a day or two. It is to be noted that any strong pull back may find resistance near 2832- 2852 levels.
Happy Trading !
Monday, November 24, 2008
24 Nov'08: Finally It Happened
On Friday nifty finally gave a much insisted surprise pull back which was pending for the last 3-4 sessions. Nifty opened almost flat and then increased up to 2660 levels where it faced the selling pressure which has bought nifty to the previous day’s closing level. Near the previous day’s closing level nifty bounced very strongly and there was no looking back which eventually took nifty to close at the day’s high of 2718. The strong pull back may be purely attributed to short covering in the futures.
US market on Friday closed strongly with their indices around 5-7% up in the last hour rally. Surprisingly today Asian markets also have opened and trading weak in negative region. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild positive. Intraday volatility may be anticipated for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2761 or 2829 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2583 or 2472 levels. The ongoing pull back may be expected to continue at least for a day or two. It is to be noted that the weekly resistance for nifty remains at 2852 levels.
Happy Trading !
US market on Friday closed strongly with their indices around 5-7% up in the last hour rally. Surprisingly today Asian markets also have opened and trading weak in negative region. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild positive. Intraday volatility may be anticipated for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2761 or 2829 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2583 or 2472 levels. The ongoing pull back may be expected to continue at least for a day or two. It is to be noted that the weekly resistance for nifty remains at 2852 levels.
Happy Trading !
Friday, November 21, 2008
21 Nov'08: Massive Sell-off
Yesterday nifty opened weak by a huge gap down of around 100 points. During the day nifty defended the 2500 mark by testing that level couple of times and pulled back after testing and that is a positive sign at least for yesterday. There was intraday volatility within a narrow gap and ultimately nifty closed near the day’s high without filling the gap created in the opening.
There was once again a massive sell off in the US market which has resulted in the loss of around 5-7% in their indices. Asian markets also have opened and trading weak in negative region. Expect nifty also to open weak. Intraday surprises can be anticipated for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2589 or 2626 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2509 or 2466 levels. It is likely that nifty may take support near 2486 level which is a critical Fibonacci support level and breaching of which can easily take nifty towards the October low. As we are repeatedly indicating that the indices have entered oversold region, nifty may give a surprise pull back anytime and close positive at least for a day or two before it can fall back to lower levels
Happy Trading !
There was once again a massive sell off in the US market which has resulted in the loss of around 5-7% in their indices. Asian markets also have opened and trading weak in negative region. Expect nifty also to open weak. Intraday surprises can be anticipated for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2589 or 2626 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2509 or 2466 levels. It is likely that nifty may take support near 2486 level which is a critical Fibonacci support level and breaching of which can easily take nifty towards the October low. As we are repeatedly indicating that the indices have entered oversold region, nifty may give a surprise pull back anytime and close positive at least for a day or two before it can fall back to lower levels
Happy Trading !
Thursday, November 20, 2008
20 Nov'08: At Critical Support Level
Nifty opened positive by taking cues from the US market. During the day nifty formed double top at the day’s high of 2772 which attracted the long position holders to liquidate their positions and also invited fresh shorts which had eventually brought the nifty towards the day’s low without looking back. Nifty closed at 2635 which is closer to our mentioned critical support level of 2642.
There was a massive sell off in the US market which has resulted in the loss of around 5-7% in their indices. Asian markets also have opened and trading weak in negative region. Expect nifty also to open weak, possibly with a mild gap down. Intraday surprises can be anticipated for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2675 or 2732 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2578 or 2521 levels. In worst case scenario nifty should take support near 2486 level which is a critical Fibonacci support level and breaching of which can easily take nifty towards the October low. As we are repeatedly indicating that the indices have entered oversold region, nifty may give a surprise pull back anytime.
Happy Trading !
There was a massive sell off in the US market which has resulted in the loss of around 5-7% in their indices. Asian markets also have opened and trading weak in negative region. Expect nifty also to open weak, possibly with a mild gap down. Intraday surprises can be anticipated for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2675 or 2732 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2578 or 2521 levels. In worst case scenario nifty should take support near 2486 level which is a critical Fibonacci support level and breaching of which can easily take nifty towards the October low. As we are repeatedly indicating that the indices have entered oversold region, nifty may give a surprise pull back anytime.
Happy Trading !
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
19 Nov'08: Oversold
Nifty opened weak as we had expected with a big gap down. As we had indicated nifty traded very volatile during the day with lot of choppiness in the intraday trend. After lot of ups and downs during the day nifty closed close to the day’s low.
US market closed positive after the last hour pull back with their indices around 1-2% up. But Asian markets have opened and trading in negative region. By considering the way nifty closed yesterday we can expect nifty to open flat to mild negative. But by considering the fact that nifty closed negative consecutively for the last 5 trading session nifty opening and closing in the positive region cannot be ruled out also.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2748 or 2813 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2641 or 2599 levels. As we had indicated from the previous notes itself that the indices have entered oversold region, nifty may give a surprise pull back anytime.
Happy Trading !
US market closed positive after the last hour pull back with their indices around 1-2% up. But Asian markets have opened and trading in negative region. By considering the way nifty closed yesterday we can expect nifty to open flat to mild negative. But by considering the fact that nifty closed negative consecutively for the last 5 trading session nifty opening and closing in the positive region cannot be ruled out also.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2748 or 2813 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2641 or 2599 levels. As we had indicated from the previous notes itself that the indices have entered oversold region, nifty may give a surprise pull back anytime.
Happy Trading !
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
18 Nov'08: Pull Back
Nifty opened mild positive as we had expected and fell into the negative region in no time. Nifty breached the important Fibonacci support level with ease and made the day’s low very close to our mentioned support level of 2683 from where it had bounced very sharply with a great momentum which took the nifty into the positive region. At the end of the day nifty closed with mild negative.
Once again US market closed very weak with their indices around 2-3% down in fear or recession worries. Asian markets have opened and trading weak. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild negative. Intraday volatility can be expected for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2859 or 2918 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2717 or 2635 levels. Today it will be decided whether nifty will continue its pull back trend which started in the second half of yesterday’s session or move downwards to test our second support level. With yesterday’s move nifty has entered the oversold region and a pull back may come in anytime.
Happy Trading !
Once again US market closed very weak with their indices around 2-3% down in fear or recession worries. Asian markets have opened and trading weak. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild negative. Intraday volatility can be expected for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2859 or 2918 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2717 or 2635 levels. Today it will be decided whether nifty will continue its pull back trend which started in the second half of yesterday’s session or move downwards to test our second support level. With yesterday’s move nifty has entered the oversold region and a pull back may come in anytime.
Happy Trading !
Monday, November 17, 2008
17 Nov'08: Will 50% Retracement Holds?
As we expected on Friday nifty opened strong with a gap up of about 90 points closer to the mentioned first resistance level. But nifty could not sustain at that high level and fell to fill the initial gap created. For the rest of the day nifty traded sideways in a choppy manner and closed below the previous week’s low.
US market closed very weak with their indices around 3-5% down. Asian markets have opened and trading mixed. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild positive.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2907 or 3003 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2747 or 2683 levels. A mild pull back can be expected near the first support level with coincides with Fibonacci 50% retracement.
Happy Trading !
US market closed very weak with their indices around 3-5% down. Asian markets have opened and trading mixed. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild positive.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2907 or 3003 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2747 or 2683 levels. A mild pull back can be expected near the first support level with coincides with Fibonacci 50% retracement.
Happy Trading !
Friday, November 14, 2008
14 Nov'08: Inflation Cools Off
On Wednesday nifty opened weak as expected with a gap down of about 50 points. Nifty tested our first support level during the initial hours and strongly rebound from the same and was trading sideways in a choppy fashion till the first half of the session. In the second half nifty decisively broke the crucial support of 2866 and fell sharply towards 2800. Nifty managed to recover a bit from its day’s low and closed near the crucial support level.
US market rallied massively and closed very strong with their indices around 6-7% up. Asian markets have not failed to follow the US market and opened strongly positive. On the backdrop of good global cues and more importantly very good IIP and inflation numbers expect nifty is expected to open positive most probably with a gap up.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2951 or 3053 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2808 or 2747 levels. The genuinity of rally in the US market may be tested in days to come.
Happy Trading !
US market rallied massively and closed very strong with their indices around 6-7% up. Asian markets have not failed to follow the US market and opened strongly positive. On the backdrop of good global cues and more importantly very good IIP and inflation numbers expect nifty is expected to open positive most probably with a gap up.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2951 or 3053 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2808 or 2747 levels. The genuinity of rally in the US market may be tested in days to come.
Happy Trading !
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
12 Nov'08: Will IIP Helps?
As expected nifty opened weak with a gap down of about 60 points. During the day it was one way move and that was downwards. Though nifty took a brief pause near our mentioned support levels the same got broken eventually and closed at the day’s low which was diagonally opposite to what had happened the day before where the nifty closed at the day’s high. Traders are made to get confused with this ongoing alternate day change in nifty direction.
US market closed weak with their indices around 2% down on the consumer spending worries. Asian markets have opened mixed and trading weak. Nifty is expected to open flat to weak inline with the global markets and remains so till the IIP numbers are out later today.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3007 or 3064 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2866 or 2747 levels. Breaching of 2866 levels has to be watched closely as trading for some time below this level may take nifty to much lower level in no time. Nifty is expected to trade neutrally till the IIP numbers are out and nifty may move decisively on either of the directions based on the numbers.
Happy Trading !
US market closed weak with their indices around 2% down on the consumer spending worries. Asian markets have opened mixed and trading weak. Nifty is expected to open flat to weak inline with the global markets and remains so till the IIP numbers are out later today.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3007 or 3064 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2866 or 2747 levels. Breaching of 2866 levels has to be watched closely as trading for some time below this level may take nifty to much lower level in no time. Nifty is expected to trade neutrally till the IIP numbers are out and nifty may move decisively on either of the directions based on the numbers.
Happy Trading !
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
11 Nov'08: Is Moves Genuine?
As expected nifty opened positive in line with the Asian markets with a gap up. As we had mentioned after breaking our first resistance level of 3035 in the initial hour of trading there was no turning back and eventually nifty closed at the day’s high for the day breaking all the resistance levels with ease.
US market closed weak with their indices around 1-2% down on the economic worries. Asian markets have opened and trading in negative region. Nifty is expected to open weak inline with the global markets and even a gap down of 50-100 points cannot be ruled out.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3189 or 3253 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 3056 or 2963 levels. Closing below 3000 level may bring more weakness to nifty which can eventually take it to near 2860 levels. The genuinity of the up moves in the past will be tested this week.
Happy Trading !
US market closed weak with their indices around 1-2% down on the economic worries. Asian markets have opened and trading in negative region. Nifty is expected to open weak inline with the global markets and even a gap down of 50-100 points cannot be ruled out.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3189 or 3253 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 3056 or 2963 levels. Closing below 3000 level may bring more weakness to nifty which can eventually take it to near 2860 levels. The genuinity of the up moves in the past will be tested this week.
Happy Trading !
Monday, November 10, 2008
10 Nov'08: Surprise Moves
As expected nifty opened weak with a small gap down and in no time came to the positive region. In the first half of the session nifty was trading sideways and in the second half moved up and tested 3000 mark couple of times and closed around our first resistance level of 2979.
On Friday the US market closed positive with their indices around 2-3% up. Asian markets have opened and trading mixed. Our market may open flat or in line with Asian markets.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3035 or 3098 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2925 or 2863 levels. Breaching of either of our first resistance or support level may make nifty to move in the direction in which it had breached its support or resistance. Today will be important day in the sense in deciding the future course of the market at least for this week.
Happy Trading !
On Friday the US market closed positive with their indices around 2-3% up. Asian markets have opened and trading mixed. Our market may open flat or in line with Asian markets.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3035 or 3098 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2925 or 2863 levels. Breaching of either of our first resistance or support level may make nifty to move in the direction in which it had breached its support or resistance. Today will be important day in the sense in deciding the future course of the market at least for this week.
Happy Trading !
Friday, November 7, 2008
07 Nov'08: Correction Week
As expected nifty opened very weak with a gap down of about 100 points. During the intraday nifty tested our support level of 2864 couple of times and in the second half of the session it gave a surprising sharp up move to fill the initial gap created and fell in no time with the same speed with which it had increased. Nifty closed near our first support level of 2898.
The US market closed very weak yesterday also and most of the indices lost almost 5% once again. Asian markets also opened and trading very weak. In line with US and Asian markets nifty is expected to open weak.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2979 or 3065 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2834 or 2747 levels. Breaching and closing below 2747 may bring more weakness to the nifty and can move towards 2630. Most of the Index stocks are still closely in the overbought region. Intraday surprises may be expected for the day.
Happy Trading !
The US market closed very weak yesterday also and most of the indices lost almost 5% once again. Asian markets also opened and trading very weak. In line with US and Asian markets nifty is expected to open weak.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2979 or 3065 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2834 or 2747 levels. Breaching and closing below 2747 may bring more weakness to the nifty and can move towards 2630. Most of the Index stocks are still closely in the overbought region. Intraday surprises may be expected for the day.
Happy Trading !
Thursday, November 6, 2008
06 Nov'08: Counter Rally
As expected nifty positively with a gap up of about 100 points and also as we have indicated profit booking kicked in to utilize the global market induced strong opening. The initial downtrend was arrested around our first support level and nifty traded sideways for a while without breaching our first support level. In the second half of the session nifty breached our first support level which took it further down to close at the day’s low.
The US market closed very weak in view of resurfaced recession worries and most of the indices lost almost 5%. Asian markets also opened and trading very weak. In line with US and Asian markets nifty is expected to open very weak. Even a gap down of 100-150 points cannot be ruled out.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3068 or 3165 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2898 or 2864 levels. Closing below 2949 may bring more weakness to the nifty. As we were repeatedly mentioned that nifty and other important index stocks have entered the overbought region which resulted in profit booking and this corrective move is expected to continue for at least couple of sessions.
Happy Trading !
The US market closed very weak in view of resurfaced recession worries and most of the indices lost almost 5%. Asian markets also opened and trading very weak. In line with US and Asian markets nifty is expected to open very weak. Even a gap down of 100-150 points cannot be ruled out.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3068 or 3165 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2898 or 2864 levels. Closing below 2949 may bring more weakness to the nifty. As we were repeatedly mentioned that nifty and other important index stocks have entered the overbought region which resulted in profit booking and this corrective move is expected to continue for at least couple of sessions.
Happy Trading !
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
05 Nov'08: Overbought
As expected nifty opened weak and traded volatile during the day. Nifty made the day’s low of 2985 which is almost same as the mentioned support level of 2984. Nifty closed with a strong rally during the last hour of the trading in view of US elections.
The US market closed strongly in view of Election Day and following this Asian markets also trading strongly. In line with US and Asian markets nifty is expected to open positive. Intraday volatility may be expected for the day. This ongoing pullback rally may be on for couple of sessions after which nifty has to take some rest by a corrective move.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3201 or 3260 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 3034 or 2926 levels. Closing above 3234 may bring more strength to the nifty. Having nifty and other important index stocks entered the overbought region profit booking can be expected in any time.
Happy Trading !
The US market closed strongly in view of Election Day and following this Asian markets also trading strongly. In line with US and Asian markets nifty is expected to open positive. Intraday volatility may be expected for the day. This ongoing pullback rally may be on for couple of sessions after which nifty has to take some rest by a corrective move.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3201 or 3260 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 3034 or 2926 levels. Closing above 3234 may bring more strength to the nifty. Having nifty and other important index stocks entered the overbought region profit booking can be expected in any time.
Happy Trading !
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
04 Nov'08: Time to Rest
As expected nifty opened very strongly with more than 100 points gap up. Though there was a intraday volatility the last hour of trading was marked by a strong upward momentum towards the day’s high of 3062 which was very close to our mentioned resistance level of 3059 for the day.
The US market closed almost flat ahead of elections and Asian markets are trading with mixed signals. Expect nifty to open weak may be flat or mild movement on either directions. Intraday volatility may be expected for the day. This ongoing pullback rally may be on for couple of sessions after which nifty has to take some rest by a corrective move.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3083 or 3122 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2984 or 2924 levels. Have a close watch if nifty breaks 3000 and 2950 levels as it may bring more weakness.
Happy Trading !
The US market closed almost flat ahead of elections and Asian markets are trading with mixed signals. Expect nifty to open weak may be flat or mild movement on either directions. Intraday volatility may be expected for the day. This ongoing pullback rally may be on for couple of sessions after which nifty has to take some rest by a corrective move.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3083 or 3122 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2984 or 2924 levels. Have a close watch if nifty breaks 3000 and 2950 levels as it may bring more weakness.
Happy Trading !
Monday, November 3, 2008
03 Nov'08: Pullback Rally
With positive US market and a very strong Asian markets expect a strong opening for nifty. Gap up of 50-100 points cannot be ruled out. Additionally the stimulus package announced by RBI will also help in keeping this rally on. This ongoing pullback rally may be on for couple of sessions.
For today on the lower side nifty may find support near 2786, 2747 or 2687 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 2973 or 3059 levels. Nifty has to close above 2951 to sustain the ongoing up move and move towards 3000 or higher levels. Japan market is closed for today.
Happy Trading !
For today on the lower side nifty may find support near 2786, 2747 or 2687 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 2973 or 3059 levels. Nifty has to close above 2951 to sustain the ongoing up move and move towards 3000 or higher levels. Japan market is closed for today.
Happy Trading !
Monday, October 27, 2008
27 Oct'08: No Updates Today
Due to Diwali there will be no updates till end of this week.
Happy Trading !
Happy Trading !
Friday, October 24, 2008
24 Oct'08: Ripe For a Pull Back
As we have mentioned nifty made a new low. Once again yesterday was a very volatile day. Nifty opened with a huge gap down of around 150 points and recovered to some extent to test the 3000 mark several times. In the second half of the session nifty managed to break 3000 mark decisively and gave a very strong pull back which took nifty in the positive region and made the day’s high at 3085. But nifty short lived in the positive region and made a nose dive towards the day’s low after making a double top pattern. Nifty closed below 3000 level in a disappointed manner at 2943 which also damaged the sentiment among the investors.
The US market saw a very volatile session and closed with a mixed note. DOW and S&P500 are up by 2% and 1.26% respectively. Asian markets also opened and trading weak with a negative bias. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild negative.
For today on the lower side nifty may find support near 2879, 2865 or 2815 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 2982 or 3046 levels. As it was mentioned in the earlier note that the support level of 2865 which is also the weekly support level may resist nifty’s downfall. As nifty is in the oversold region for a very long time, in any time it can give a very strong pull back. We have to wait and watch whether nifty will manage to close above last week closing level of 3074.
Happy Trading !
The US market saw a very volatile session and closed with a mixed note. DOW and S&P500 are up by 2% and 1.26% respectively. Asian markets also opened and trading weak with a negative bias. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild negative.
For today on the lower side nifty may find support near 2879, 2865 or 2815 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 2982 or 3046 levels. As it was mentioned in the earlier note that the support level of 2865 which is also the weekly support level may resist nifty’s downfall. As nifty is in the oversold region for a very long time, in any time it can give a very strong pull back. We have to wait and watch whether nifty will manage to close above last week closing level of 3074.
Happy Trading !
Thursday, October 23, 2008
23 Oct'08: Ready For Another New Low !
As expected yesterday nifty opened weak with a 100 points gap down. During the day nifty traded very weak, every intra day pull backs got sold off like a hot cake. Nifty went very close to the year low of 3047 and made day’s low at 3052. During the downward journey during the day nifty has shattered all the important support levels, but it closed exactly at our mentioned support level of 3065. Whatever gain nifty made on Wednesday was given back yesterday. Failure to hold 3200 level is definitely is not a good sign.
The US market broke all the major support levels yesterday and closed with a very negative note with their indices down by about 4-6% down. Asian markets also opened and trading very weak. Nifty is expected to open negative. Its almost sure that nifty is going to make new low in the opening itself. Breaking the 3000 level will definitely damage the sentiment.
For today on the lower side nifty may find support near 2999, 2934 or 2865 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3183 or 3256 levels. In any case the mentioned support level of 2865 which is also the weekly support level should contain nifty’s downfall. As nifty is in the oversold region for a very long time, in any time it can give a very strong pull back.
Happy Trading !
The US market broke all the major support levels yesterday and closed with a very negative note with their indices down by about 4-6% down. Asian markets also opened and trading very weak. Nifty is expected to open negative. Its almost sure that nifty is going to make new low in the opening itself. Breaking the 3000 level will definitely damage the sentiment.
For today on the lower side nifty may find support near 2999, 2934 or 2865 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3183 or 3256 levels. In any case the mentioned support level of 2865 which is also the weekly support level should contain nifty’s downfall. As nifty is in the oversold region for a very long time, in any time it can give a very strong pull back.
Happy Trading !
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
22 Oct'08: High Volatility
As we were expecting, yesterday nifty opened gap up and showed some genuine pull back in line what we had mentioned in the last update. Due to high volatility the intraday chart was very choppy. During the day nifty moved up with a positive bias and closed near the day’s high. The weekly pivot point of 3256 offered a strong resistance for nifty to move further on the upside. There was strong pull back recorded in important nifty stocks like Reliance Industries, etc. which is a positive sign for the market.
The US market opened weak closed with a very negative note. US market indices also recorded a volatile, choppy trade yesterday and most of damage was done in the last hour of trading to close around 2-4% down. Asian markets also opened and trading with a negative bias. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild negative.
For today on the lower side nifty may find support near 3202, 3189, 3149 or 3065 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3287, 3320 or 3347 levels. It is important for nifty to close above 3200 level to keep the upward momentum intact. Nifty is expected to experience a strong resistance near 3330-40 levels and breaching of same may propel nifty to higher levels.
Happy Trading !
The US market opened weak closed with a very negative note. US market indices also recorded a volatile, choppy trade yesterday and most of damage was done in the last hour of trading to close around 2-4% down. Asian markets also opened and trading with a negative bias. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild negative.
For today on the lower side nifty may find support near 3202, 3189, 3149 or 3065 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3287, 3320 or 3347 levels. It is important for nifty to close above 3200 level to keep the upward momentum intact. Nifty is expected to experience a strong resistance near 3330-40 levels and breaching of same may propel nifty to higher levels.
Happy Trading !
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
21 Oct'08: Technical Bounce Back
The 3000 level in nifty is still preserved. Yesterday in line with our expectation nifty opened with a gap up. Though the intraday trend was very choppy nifty stayed within the mentioned support and resistance levels. On the higher side nifty went closed to our resistance level of 3258 and made the day’s high at 3238 from where it fell very sharply.
The US market closed with a very positive note after the Federal Reserve chairman’s support for further aid to support the economy. Asian markets also opened and trading with a positive bias. Nifty is expected to open positive. One more gap up opening for today is definitely there in the cards.
As indicated in the last notes the nifty daily chart has entered into the oversold region and also the weekly chart is in deep oversold region, possibility of a strong pull back is bright. For today on the lower side nifty may find support near 3042 or 2961 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3221, 3276 or 3319levels.
Happy Trading !
The US market closed with a very positive note after the Federal Reserve chairman’s support for further aid to support the economy. Asian markets also opened and trading with a positive bias. Nifty is expected to open positive. One more gap up opening for today is definitely there in the cards.
As indicated in the last notes the nifty daily chart has entered into the oversold region and also the weekly chart is in deep oversold region, possibility of a strong pull back is bright. For today on the lower side nifty may find support near 3042 or 2961 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3221, 3276 or 3319levels.
Happy Trading !
Monday, October 20, 2008
20 Oct'08: Will 3000 Hold?
On Friday as per our expectation nifty opened with a mild positive note which was pulled back in no time towards its previous day closing level. During the first 15 minutes nifty made the day’s high at 3336 and has not breached our resistance level of 3365. Nifty made a sideways movement till the first half of the session which is followed by a unidirectional move, which was nothing but downward movement and there was no turning back to close at the day’s low once again. Nifty closed at 3046 which is almost at the mentioned weekly support level of 3045.
The US market on Friday after a volatile intraday closed mildly negative to confirm its non-genuinity of the Thursday’s last hour strong pull back which resulted in 4-5% gain. Asian markets have opened and trading with a positive bias. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild positive. Even a gap up opening of 50-100 points cannot be ruled out.
As our market is almost oversold some intraday bounce back may be expected. In the daily chart nifty is entering into the oversold region and same may be over in couple of sessions after which nifty may take support and give a pull back. For today on the lower side nifty may find support near 2969 or 2921 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3152, 3189 or 3258 levels. Also 3000 level in nifty may provide some psychological support. The weekly support exists at 2865 & 2655. If ongoing bear run has to be similar to that of 2000-2002 bear run nifty has to fall till 2550 to take support and followed by a pull back, let us wait and watch.
Happy Trading !
The US market on Friday after a volatile intraday closed mildly negative to confirm its non-genuinity of the Thursday’s last hour strong pull back which resulted in 4-5% gain. Asian markets have opened and trading with a positive bias. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild positive. Even a gap up opening of 50-100 points cannot be ruled out.
As our market is almost oversold some intraday bounce back may be expected. In the daily chart nifty is entering into the oversold region and same may be over in couple of sessions after which nifty may take support and give a pull back. For today on the lower side nifty may find support near 2969 or 2921 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3152, 3189 or 3258 levels. Also 3000 level in nifty may provide some psychological support. The weekly support exists at 2865 & 2655. If ongoing bear run has to be similar to that of 2000-2002 bear run nifty has to fall till 2550 to take support and followed by a pull back, let us wait and watch.
Happy Trading !
Friday, October 17, 2008
17 Oct'08: New 2008 Low
As per our yesterday’s notes heading, the first half session was dominated by panic set in among the traders which had pulled the market to the new 2008 low of 3100. In the second half session traders are taken by surprise by the massive recovery which had pulled the nifty very close to its day before yesterday’s closing level. In the last 30 minutes there was a sharp decline of almost 70-80 points and whether it has any meaning can be confirmed by today’s market action.
The US market registered a strong rally in the last hour of the trading to close around 4-5% up though there was intraday volatility. The genuinity of the last hour pull back in US market will be tested and confirmed in couple of sessions in days to come. Asian markets have opened and trading mixed. Nifty is also expected to open flat to mild positive.
On the lower side nifty may find support near 3199 or 3137 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3365 or 3438 levels. The weekly support exists at 3045. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 3462.
Happy Trading !
The US market registered a strong rally in the last hour of the trading to close around 4-5% up though there was intraday volatility. The genuinity of the last hour pull back in US market will be tested and confirmed in couple of sessions in days to come. Asian markets have opened and trading mixed. Nifty is also expected to open flat to mild positive.
On the lower side nifty may find support near 3199 or 3137 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3365 or 3438 levels. The weekly support exists at 3045. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 3462.
Happy Trading !
Thursday, October 16, 2008
16 Oct'08: Panic Again
In continuation with day before yesterday’s decline, yesterday also market opened weak with a gap down as we had expected. After the gap down opening there was no looking back and the market kept on declining to close at the lowest point of the day once again. Traders had utilized the two days relief rally to liquidate all their long positions to book profit. The trend reversal pattern had been confirmed by the “Inverted Hammer” which formed day before yesterday and same been mentioned in our yesterday’s note.
As we mentioned in the last notes it is confirmed that the celebrations are over in US market. Once again panic set in US market after the bad economic data was out with 7-9% down in most of its indices. US market Asian markets has not failed to influence the Asian markets which have opened and trading very weak with their indices down by 6-10%. In line with the global markets nifty is also expected to open weak. Don’t be surprised to see a 100-150 points Gap down opening in nifty.
On the lower side nifty may find support near 3289, 3240 or 3199 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3388 or 3424 levels. In worst case nifty is not expected to breach 2997. In case of panic and emotion based trading technical support and resistance has very little importance.
Happy Trading !
As we mentioned in the last notes it is confirmed that the celebrations are over in US market. Once again panic set in US market after the bad economic data was out with 7-9% down in most of its indices. US market Asian markets has not failed to influence the Asian markets which have opened and trading very weak with their indices down by 6-10%. In line with the global markets nifty is also expected to open weak. Don’t be surprised to see a 100-150 points Gap down opening in nifty.
On the lower side nifty may find support near 3289, 3240 or 3199 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3388 or 3424 levels. In worst case nifty is not expected to breach 2997. In case of panic and emotion based trading technical support and resistance has very little importance.
Happy Trading !
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
15 Oct'08: Exhaustion
In line with our expectation yesterday market opened strongly with a gap up of about 150 points and the opening high remained the day’s high. Nifty did not dared to break our third resistance of 3667 which is almost near to the 200 week moving average and any up move has to break this level for further upward movement. In the second half session, nifty showed some weakness which may be attributed to selling pressure at high levels and eventually came down to fill the opening gap up to close at the lowest point of the day which is not at all a good sign for the bulls.
It seems celebrations are fading out in US market as it traded and closed with a weak note. Following the US market Asian markets also opened and trading weak. In line with the global markets nifty is also expected to open weak with a flat to negative note. Don’t be surprised to see a Gap down opening in nifty.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3610 or 3695 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 3462, 3405 or 3370 levels. In the daily candle stick chart, yesterday’s trading left a “Inverted Hammer” which is one of trend reversal pattern and same can be confirmed by today’s trading.
Happy Trading !
It seems celebrations are fading out in US market as it traded and closed with a weak note. Following the US market Asian markets also opened and trading weak. In line with the global markets nifty is also expected to open weak with a flat to negative note. Don’t be surprised to see a Gap down opening in nifty.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3610 or 3695 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 3462, 3405 or 3370 levels. In the daily candle stick chart, yesterday’s trading left a “Inverted Hammer” which is one of trend reversal pattern and same can be confirmed by today’s trading.
Happy Trading !
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
14 Oct'08: Global Markets Rejoicing
As per our expectation yesterday nifty made a strong bounce back on the back drop of strong Asia markets. The due for technical bounce back was expected and been mentioned in our earlier posts repeatedly. Yesterday nifty opened with a strong gap up of about 100 points. During the day on its upward travel it tested and broke our mentioned first two resistance levels. Our third resistance level resisted nifty’s further up movement strongly and nifty made the day’s high near the mentioned resistance level of 3505 by a very few points.
Yesterday in US market there was celebrations and the market rejoiced by the Bush’s announcement of expanded bank bailout details. US market indices are up of about 11-12% which is the highest one day move in last 76 years. Asian markets also opened and trading strongly. As Japan market could not participate in yesterday’s rally as it was closed yesterday, today it opened very strongly and trading at almost 13% up.
Following global market celebration and rejoicing nifty is expected to open strongly with a gap up today also. On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3548, 3606 or 3667 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 3394 or 3298 levels. The weekly support exists at 3046.
Happy Trading !
Yesterday in US market there was celebrations and the market rejoiced by the Bush’s announcement of expanded bank bailout details. US market indices are up of about 11-12% which is the highest one day move in last 76 years. Asian markets also opened and trading strongly. As Japan market could not participate in yesterday’s rally as it was closed yesterday, today it opened very strongly and trading at almost 13% up.
Following global market celebration and rejoicing nifty is expected to open strongly with a gap up today also. On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3548, 3606 or 3667 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 3394 or 3298 levels. The weekly support exists at 3046.
Happy Trading !
Monday, October 13, 2008
13 Oct'08: Will Cat Bounce?
On Friday as we had mentioned in our notes, really the hell was cut loose for the nifty to open with a huge gap down of nearly 300 points and made one more new year low of 3199. With RBI reacted promptly to reduce further 100 basic points in CRR to inject another 40,000 crores liquidity market made some recovery move and finally closed at 3280.
Though the US market on Friday opened very weak, the way it has closed in the last hour of trading by a very good bounce brought some hope in global markets. With all the global players met and decide to take coordinated move to stabilize this ongoing turmoil has boosted the sentiment among the investors. Asian markets are trading the positive terrain. Japan market is closed for today.
Nifty is expected to open in a positive terrain, possibly it would be a gap up opening. As we had mentioned in the last update that all the global markets are due for a technical bounce back and same is expected in any time, we can expect it to happen this week. On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3386, 3433 or 3505 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 3187 or 3094 levels. The weekly support exists at 3046.
Happy Trading !
Though the US market on Friday opened very weak, the way it has closed in the last hour of trading by a very good bounce brought some hope in global markets. With all the global players met and decide to take coordinated move to stabilize this ongoing turmoil has boosted the sentiment among the investors. Asian markets are trading the positive terrain. Japan market is closed for today.
Nifty is expected to open in a positive terrain, possibly it would be a gap up opening. As we had mentioned in the last update that all the global markets are due for a technical bounce back and same is expected in any time, we can expect it to happen this week. On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 3386, 3433 or 3505 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 3187 or 3094 levels. The weekly support exists at 3046.
Happy Trading !
Friday, October 10, 2008
10 Oct'08: Hell Cut Loose
On Wednesday nifty opened with a huge gap down of around 150 points and went further down to make a new year low of 3330. Nifty broke all the major and minor support levels with a comfortable margin during the onset of panic among the traders. From the day’s low it bounced back to get resisted around the psychological level of 3500 and same been taken out during the last hour of the trading to close at 3513. Almost 150 points recovery from the day’s low had left the traders with some kind of hope on the Wednesday evening.
In spite of taking coordinated move by the major global banks to cut their interest rates to improve the liquidity, global markets doesn’t seems to take to cue and shown some sign of recovery. The US market once again took a blood bath yesterday and closed very very weak making the lowest levels in the past 5 years. Asian market has not failed to take the cue from the US market and opened with a very huge loss of around 7-10%.
Anything can happen in the Indian market today on both the directions. I feel the opening will be very weak with the gap down in line with our peer Asian markets. Don’t be surprised if the nifty tests the Wednesday’s low in the initial hours and in very worst case may be it can break 3330 level also. As all the global markets are due for a technical bounce back and same is expected in any time. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3385, 3330 or 3255 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3588 or 3662 levels. During panic and emotion based trading technical support and resistance has very little importance.
Happy Trading !
In spite of taking coordinated move by the major global banks to cut their interest rates to improve the liquidity, global markets doesn’t seems to take to cue and shown some sign of recovery. The US market once again took a blood bath yesterday and closed very very weak making the lowest levels in the past 5 years. Asian market has not failed to take the cue from the US market and opened with a very huge loss of around 7-10%.
Anything can happen in the Indian market today on both the directions. I feel the opening will be very weak with the gap down in line with our peer Asian markets. Don’t be surprised if the nifty tests the Wednesday’s low in the initial hours and in very worst case may be it can break 3330 level also. As all the global markets are due for a technical bounce back and same is expected in any time. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3385, 3330 or 3255 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3588 or 3662 levels. During panic and emotion based trading technical support and resistance has very little importance.
Happy Trading !
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
08 Oct'08: Uncertainty
Yesterday nifty opened gap up, which was short lived to fall eventually. During the fall nifty took support very very close to our mentioned support of 3539 and made day’s low at 3537. The trend was very choppy going up and down. During the day nifty broke the important support level of 3555 and in no time recovered above this level to close flat above 3600 at 3606.6. forming a doji in the daily chart. Doji signifies uncertainity among the traders which is exactly happening as people are very much confused with respect to the direction of the market.
Once again the US market took a blood bath yesterday and closed very weak with S&P 500 breaking the psychological level of 1000. Following the weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading very weak. Nifty is expected to open weak. Gap down of 50–100 cannot be ruled out.
As both weekly and daily charts gives signal of oversold, bounce back can be expected any time, if not today it may come in couple of sessions. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3559, 3518 or 3430 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3646 or 3714 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 3750. Hope nifty does not break March 2007 low of 3555 and psychological level of 3500.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Once again the US market took a blood bath yesterday and closed very weak with S&P 500 breaking the psychological level of 1000. Following the weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading very weak. Nifty is expected to open weak. Gap down of 50–100 cannot be ruled out.
As both weekly and daily charts gives signal of oversold, bounce back can be expected any time, if not today it may come in couple of sessions. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3559, 3518 or 3430 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3646 or 3714 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 3750. Hope nifty does not break March 2007 low of 3555 and psychological level of 3500.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
07 Oct'08: Hope for Bottom
Title of our yesterday’s notes best defines whatever that has happened yesterday. In line with our expectation nifty broke 3800 level comfortably in the huge gap down opening. During the downward momentum move, nifty took support near the mentioned level of 3648 and gave a brief pull up. Breaking all the support levels nifty entered sub 3600 level and closed above 3600 at 3602.
US market closed very weak on Monday with Dow closed below the important psychological level of 10000. In the last hour there was strong pull back in the US market indices to close around 3-4% down. Following the weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading very weak. Nifty is expected to open weak with mild gap down.
Yesterday also nifty heavy weight champion Reliance been hammered heavily which has damaged the sentiment among the investors. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3555, 3539 or 3476 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3707 or 3813 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 3970. Hope nifty does not break March 2007 low of 3555. On the back drop of RBI announcement to cut CRR by 50 points to 8.5% with effect from 11 Oct. 08 which is believed to increase the liquidity by 20000 crores and SEBI’s action with P-Notes, let us see how it impacts the melting down market.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
US market closed very weak on Monday with Dow closed below the important psychological level of 10000. In the last hour there was strong pull back in the US market indices to close around 3-4% down. Following the weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading very weak. Nifty is expected to open weak with mild gap down.
Yesterday also nifty heavy weight champion Reliance been hammered heavily which has damaged the sentiment among the investors. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3555, 3539 or 3476 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3707 or 3813 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 3970. Hope nifty does not break March 2007 low of 3555. On the back drop of RBI announcement to cut CRR by 50 points to 8.5% with effect from 11 Oct. 08 which is believed to increase the liquidity by 20000 crores and SEBI’s action with P-Notes, let us see how it impacts the melting down market.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Monday, October 6, 2008
06 Oct'08: More Fall
As per our last Friday’s note, the week ended by sending jitters among the traders. Nifty lost another 3.32% on Friday. On Friday, as we indicated nifty opened 50 points gap down and continued to fall during the day breaking all the supports in its way down towards 4800. During the day nifty has not breached 4800 level and closed above 4800 (4818).
US market closed very weak on Friday in spite of bail out package been cleared US congress. Clearance of the package by US congress was exactly as per our view on Friday. Following the weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading very weak. In harmony with global markets, nifty is also expected to open weak. Nifty breaking 4800 level at the opening itself cannot be ruled out.
With nifty heavy weight champion Reliance been hammered heavily on Friday, nifty seems to be vulnerable on the downside. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3759, 3699 or 3688 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3845 or 3923 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 4000. Ultimately this downward trend may take solid support near 200 week moving average of 3648 or March 2007 low of 3555.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
US market closed very weak on Friday in spite of bail out package been cleared US congress. Clearance of the package by US congress was exactly as per our view on Friday. Following the weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading very weak. In harmony with global markets, nifty is also expected to open weak. Nifty breaking 4800 level at the opening itself cannot be ruled out.
With nifty heavy weight champion Reliance been hammered heavily on Friday, nifty seems to be vulnerable on the downside. On the lower side nifty may find support near 3759, 3699 or 3688 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 3845 or 3923 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 4000. Ultimately this downward trend may take solid support near 200 week moving average of 3648 or March 2007 low of 3555.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Friday, October 3, 2008
03 Oct'08: Weekend Jittery
On Wednesday as we have mentioned, nifty opened positive with 40 points up but could not sustain and eventually took nifty into the negative region. During the day nifty has tested both of our support and resistance levels which were mentioned in our last update. On the lower side, nifty made the day’s low at 3861 which was only few points away from the mentioned support of 3853. Similarly on the upper side, nifty made the day’s high at 4000.5 which is again very closer to our mentioned resistance level of 4009.
US market closed very weak on Thursday on the back of declining factory order report. Though the bailout package was passed by senate, its fate will be finalized by the US congress which is yet to pass the package. In my view, the package will be passed by the US congress also during the voting. Following the very weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading weak. In harmony with global markets, nifty is also expected to open weak. Even a gap down of 50-100 points or more cannot be ruled out.
On the lower side nifty may find support near 3875, 3858 or 3823 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 4013 or 4077 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 4000.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
US market closed very weak on Thursday on the back of declining factory order report. Though the bailout package was passed by senate, its fate will be finalized by the US congress which is yet to pass the package. In my view, the package will be passed by the US congress also during the voting. Following the very weak US market, Asian market also opened and trading weak. In harmony with global markets, nifty is also expected to open weak. Even a gap down of 50-100 points or more cannot be ruled out.
On the lower side nifty may find support near 3875, 3858 or 3823 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists near 4013 or 4077 levels. For any significant change in trend direction, nifty has to close above 4000.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
01 Oct'08: Technical Bounce Back
Welcome to the first trading session for the month of October. As we anticipated, nifty opened gap down in the range mentioned to make a new low of 3715. From the opening day’s low without any delay gave a sharp pull back which continued rest of the day. On its way up nifty went closer to our mentioned resistance level of 3978. More and more soothing words came from all direction which has pleased the nervous investors and the overall market. ICICI bank has recovered like anything from the losses it had incurred in the last couple of sessions.
US market made a “U” turn and recovered some of the Monday’s loss on news of alternate plan of the government for financial crisis bailout. But the credit crisis is still persisting in the Wall street. Taking cue from US, Asian markets also opened with a positive note. On back of positive US and Asian market cues, nifty may continue its bounce back course today also.
On the lower side nifty may find support at 3853 or 3768 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists at 4009, 4020 or 4078 levels. Though the overall trend is down, this leg of upward movement has to be watched closer for any signs of change in trend direction. If nifty closes above 3998 it adds strength to the upward momentum. Nifty may encounter strong resistance around 4040 levels, breaking of it may change the direction of short term trend.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Holiday: Tomorrow 2nd Oct.’08 is holiday for Bse-Nse Exchange.
Happy Trading !
US market made a “U” turn and recovered some of the Monday’s loss on news of alternate plan of the government for financial crisis bailout. But the credit crisis is still persisting in the Wall street. Taking cue from US, Asian markets also opened with a positive note. On back of positive US and Asian market cues, nifty may continue its bounce back course today also.
On the lower side nifty may find support at 3853 or 3768 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists at 4009, 4020 or 4078 levels. Though the overall trend is down, this leg of upward movement has to be watched closer for any signs of change in trend direction. If nifty closes above 3998 it adds strength to the upward momentum. Nifty may encounter strong resistance around 4040 levels, breaking of it may change the direction of short term trend.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Holiday: Tomorrow 2nd Oct.’08 is holiday for Bse-Nse Exchange.
Happy Trading !
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
30 Sep'08: Blood Bath
Yesterday was one more panic day in our market. Nifty opened week and traded uni-directionally downwards breached all the support levels comfortably. Important support of 3800 also been breached to make a new low of 3777. There was blood bath across all the sectors which may be attributed to redemption from large institutions for the quarter ending September. Yesterday’s action has made the weekly chart more damaged in addition to the weakness imparted to it by last week Friday’s market move. From the day’s low nifty bounced almost 100 points which may be due to short covering and profit booking.
US market crashed in a jaw dropping manner as the financial rescue bailout package plan failed in the Congress voting. Asian markets also opened and trading very weak. Inline with global market nifty is expected to open in a gap down manner. Even a gap down of 100-150 points or more cannot be ruled out.
On the lower side nifty may find support at 3752 or 3659 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists at 3901, 3978 or 4040 levels. It is to be noted that we have entered oversold region after whatever happened yesterday. So technical bounce back is due and is expected anytime if not today may be in couple of trading sessions. On the lower side don’t be surprised if the nifty moves to 3636 levels to test the 200 week moving average.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
US market crashed in a jaw dropping manner as the financial rescue bailout package plan failed in the Congress voting. Asian markets also opened and trading very weak. Inline with global market nifty is expected to open in a gap down manner. Even a gap down of 100-150 points or more cannot be ruled out.
On the lower side nifty may find support at 3752 or 3659 levels. Similarly on the upper side resistance exists at 3901, 3978 or 4040 levels. It is to be noted that we have entered oversold region after whatever happened yesterday. So technical bounce back is due and is expected anytime if not today may be in couple of trading sessions. On the lower side don’t be surprised if the nifty moves to 3636 levels to test the 200 week moving average.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Monday, September 29, 2008
29 Sep'08: Expect Rubber Band Effect
As we have mentioned in the last update, on Friday nifty took the Asian market cue and opened weak and closed at the weakest point. During the day nifty breached all the important support levels and closed at the lowest point of the day. More importantly it has closed below 4000 mark which is considered to be an important psychological support level.
US market closed mixed and Asian markets also trading mixed. With $700B bail out package through, US-India nuclear deal almost through and India-France nuclear deal to be signed on Tuesday, our market may rejoice and bounce from its last week low for a day or two.
By closing below 4000, nifty has made its weekly chart to be weak which was showing some signs of bottomed out last week. As nifty closed closer to the important Fibonacci support level, mild to strong bounce back may be expected from the current level. On the upper side nifty may find resistance at 4048, 4074 or 4097 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists at 3934, 3919 or 3800 levels. Any strong up move may find strong resistance in the range of 4201 to 4239.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
US market closed mixed and Asian markets also trading mixed. With $700B bail out package through, US-India nuclear deal almost through and India-France nuclear deal to be signed on Tuesday, our market may rejoice and bounce from its last week low for a day or two.
By closing below 4000, nifty has made its weekly chart to be weak which was showing some signs of bottomed out last week. As nifty closed closer to the important Fibonacci support level, mild to strong bounce back may be expected from the current level. On the upper side nifty may find resistance at 4048, 4074 or 4097 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists at 3934, 3919 or 3800 levels. Any strong up move may find strong resistance in the range of 4201 to 4239.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Friday, September 26, 2008
26 Sep'08: Technical Analysis Works
The action of the market speaks for itself about whatever predictions we made yesterday. As we expected, market opened weak and fell unidirectionally towards and closer to the mentioned support of 4069 where it took support and has made its day low at 4077. One interesting point to be noted was that, during the bounce back from the day’s low nifty tried several times to break past the level of 4129 but finally failed only to fall back towards the psychological support level of 4100. Technically and interestingly in the intraday chart, 4129 happens to be a strong Fibonacci resistance level.
Yesterday also “IT” stocks continued to get hammered and IT(s) index was down by 2.8%. Towards the closing of the market, nifty showed some strength by bouncing sharply from the day’s support level which may be part of expiry day drama or a genuine strength which will be validated in a couple of day’s session.
US market closed strong and Asian markets opened and trading weak. We have see to which global cue nifty will be responding for the day. My feeling is that Asian market cue may have more impact on our market than that of US’s as its moves are deceptive sometimes. Everyone is keen and interested to see how the October series will be in this bearish environment.
By closing above 4100 nifty has opened some hope among traders for a bounce back. On the upper side, nifty may find resistance near 4163, 4190 or 4215 levels. Similarly on the lower side nifty may find support around 4067 or 4051 levels. In the daily chart nifty shows some weakness whereas in weekly chart it shows signs of bottoming out. We have to wait for some more sessions to see in which direction market is going to pan out.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Yesterday also “IT” stocks continued to get hammered and IT(s) index was down by 2.8%. Towards the closing of the market, nifty showed some strength by bouncing sharply from the day’s support level which may be part of expiry day drama or a genuine strength which will be validated in a couple of day’s session.
US market closed strong and Asian markets opened and trading weak. We have see to which global cue nifty will be responding for the day. My feeling is that Asian market cue may have more impact on our market than that of US’s as its moves are deceptive sometimes. Everyone is keen and interested to see how the October series will be in this bearish environment.
By closing above 4100 nifty has opened some hope among traders for a bounce back. On the upper side, nifty may find resistance near 4163, 4190 or 4215 levels. Similarly on the lower side nifty may find support around 4067 or 4051 levels. In the daily chart nifty shows some weakness whereas in weekly chart it shows signs of bottoming out. We have to wait for some more sessions to see in which direction market is going to pan out.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Thursday, September 25, 2008
25 Sep'08: Expiry Week Drama
This week being the expiry week, lot of drama is happening in the market. In spite of weak US and Asian market cues, nifty managed to opened in the positive terrain and remained there for the rest of the day. Overall the intraday trend remained choppy. Nifty tested the mentioned resistance of 4195 and reached day’s high of 4207. Nifty short-lived above 4195 level for a very brief duration and fell below the resistance level and honored the same.
Yesterday also “IT” stocks got hammered and IT(s) index was down by 1.44%. Among the 50 nifty index stocks, Wipro recorded the top rank in the loser’s list by falling 4.82%. Starting from yesterday (24th Sep.’08) to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
US market traded choppy and closed mildly weak amid debate over government’s plan to bail out sick banks. Asian markets opened and trading weak. Nifty is expected to open weak and remain choppy as today is the last day of September ’08 series contracts.
On the upper side, nifty may find resistance near 4184, 4207 or 4236 levels and in any case nifty is not expected to breach 4274 for today. Similarly on the lower side nifty may find support around 4115 level, breaching and trading below 4115 may take nifty towards 4069 or 4051 levels. To resume a short term upward trend nifty has to close above 4225.
Nifty chart suggest that it has ripe for a fall in near future as some of the nifty dominant scripts seems to be very week in their charts. Also in any time it is expected that nifty may test the 4041-4051 levels to fill the gap of last Friday gap up.
Happy Trading !
Yesterday also “IT” stocks got hammered and IT(s) index was down by 1.44%. Among the 50 nifty index stocks, Wipro recorded the top rank in the loser’s list by falling 4.82%. Starting from yesterday (24th Sep.’08) to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
US market traded choppy and closed mildly weak amid debate over government’s plan to bail out sick banks. Asian markets opened and trading weak. Nifty is expected to open weak and remain choppy as today is the last day of September ’08 series contracts.
On the upper side, nifty may find resistance near 4184, 4207 or 4236 levels and in any case nifty is not expected to breach 4274 for today. Similarly on the lower side nifty may find support around 4115 level, breaching and trading below 4115 may take nifty towards 4069 or 4051 levels. To resume a short term upward trend nifty has to close above 4225.
Nifty chart suggest that it has ripe for a fall in near future as some of the nifty dominant scripts seems to be very week in their charts. Also in any time it is expected that nifty may test the 4041-4051 levels to fill the gap of last Friday gap up.
Happy Trading !
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
24 Sep'08: More “N” More Damage
In lines with the expectation nifty had a gap down opening below 4200 and found support near the mentioned level of 4141. In spite of a very weak US cues and weak Asian markets nifty did not had a very big gap down opening. Gap down opening was followed by a recovery which may be due to short covering or manipulation by operators which was not expected with weak US and Asian cues.
Nifty rallied to recover and fill the opening gap down up to yesterday’s closing only to fall back to breach the support level of 4141 which eventually took nifty even down to close at the lowest point of the day. Nifty is becoming weaker and weaker day by day and more damage been done in the charts in continuation with yesterdays fall. Intraday nifty trend was mostly dominated by the price movement of Nifty heavyweight champion “Reliance Industries”. Also IT and Bank stocks were hammered out of shape with their index down by 4-5%.
Inline with weak US and Asian market cues, nifty may also open with a weaker note. Nifty may find support near 4110 or 4088 levels. Trading below 4088 for a while may take nifty to test 4051. On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 4150 or 4195 levels.
My gut feeling is that either nifty may breach 3800 in case of increased downward momentum without taking any breath or it may take a pause near 4051-3992 levels. One interesting point has to be noted is that in this ongoing bear run, most of the global indices either tested or breached their 200 week moving average except our market. So it is logical to expect our index also to test or breach its 200 week moving average which is at 3639.
Happy Trading !
Nifty rallied to recover and fill the opening gap down up to yesterday’s closing only to fall back to breach the support level of 4141 which eventually took nifty even down to close at the lowest point of the day. Nifty is becoming weaker and weaker day by day and more damage been done in the charts in continuation with yesterdays fall. Intraday nifty trend was mostly dominated by the price movement of Nifty heavyweight champion “Reliance Industries”. Also IT and Bank stocks were hammered out of shape with their index down by 4-5%.
Inline with weak US and Asian market cues, nifty may also open with a weaker note. Nifty may find support near 4110 or 4088 levels. Trading below 4088 for a while may take nifty to test 4051. On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 4150 or 4195 levels.
My gut feeling is that either nifty may breach 3800 in case of increased downward momentum without taking any breath or it may take a pause near 4051-3992 levels. One interesting point has to be noted is that in this ongoing bear run, most of the global indices either tested or breached their 200 week moving average except our market. So it is logical to expect our index also to test or breach its 200 week moving average which is at 3639.
Happy Trading !
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
23 Sep'08: “U” Turn
As expected yesterday nifty opened mildly gap up to test the 20 day and 50 day moving average crossover resistance of 4280-4300. During the day the trend was very choppy which is typical for expiry week. Nifty tried to break the Fibonacci retracement level of 4268 (which was mentioned in yesterdays notes) three times but could not succeed.
The way market closed at the low of the day suggests exhaustion of upward momentum and weakness in the upward trend. Also it has to be noted that whatever rally we say last week from the low of 3800 was held with the help of nifty heavyweights like Reliance Industries which also shows weakness in the charts.
Yesterday US market had a one way slide and closed at its day low with most of indices are down between 3 – 4%. Asian markets are trading mixed. On the backdrop of whatever happened in nifty and US market yesterday, expect a gap down below 4200. Nifty may take support near any of the levels of 4141, 4110 or 4051.
Happy Trading !
The way market closed at the low of the day suggests exhaustion of upward momentum and weakness in the upward trend. Also it has to be noted that whatever rally we say last week from the low of 3800 was held with the help of nifty heavyweights like Reliance Industries which also shows weakness in the charts.
Yesterday US market had a one way slide and closed at its day low with most of indices are down between 3 – 4%. Asian markets are trading mixed. On the backdrop of whatever happened in nifty and US market yesterday, expect a gap down below 4200. Nifty may take support near any of the levels of 4141, 4110 or 4051.
Happy Trading !
Monday, September 22, 2008
22 Sep'08:Bit Momentum Left
From the way market recovered from its week low of 3800 and the way it had closed on Friday without showing much weakness suggests that some more momentum is left on the upside. The upside momentum should be over in 2 or 3 days.
As the US market closed with high gain on Friday and most of the Asian market are in green nifty may open mildly gap up. Nifty will try to breach the Fibonacci retracement level of 4268 which it failed to cross on Friday. Once this level is crossed market will encounter resistance around the 20 day and 50 day moving average crossover which is around 4280-4300. If this is also breached then the next logical resistance would be 4379 & 4400 where profit booking is expected to take nifty down.
It is also to be noted that if nifty closed in green today then we would be completing 3 days of positive sessions in a row. Also since this week is an expiry week this factor is also to be included in the equation of volatility.
Happy Trading !
As the US market closed with high gain on Friday and most of the Asian market are in green nifty may open mildly gap up. Nifty will try to breach the Fibonacci retracement level of 4268 which it failed to cross on Friday. Once this level is crossed market will encounter resistance around the 20 day and 50 day moving average crossover which is around 4280-4300. If this is also breached then the next logical resistance would be 4379 & 4400 where profit booking is expected to take nifty down.
It is also to be noted that if nifty closed in green today then we would be completing 3 days of positive sessions in a row. Also since this week is an expiry week this factor is also to be included in the equation of volatility.
Happy Trading !
Nifty State Review for week ended 19 Sep'08
All the global equity markets including ours saw a highly volatile trade. Some of the global equity market went as high as 9 - 10% in a single trading session which could be the craziest we had ever seen. Lot of drama happened in the US market during the week with both negative and positive news at its extremes like Lehman brothers bankruptcy failing, government decision to bail out sick financial institutions and improving liquidity by injecting billion of dollars, etc.
Due to those extreme happenings, US market had a very volatile trading sessions throughout the week and in the same time it has not failed to influence the world market to dance to its tunes. Nifty also traded in a wide range with 3800 on the lower side and 4263 on the higher side for the week. Nifty touched its previous July'08 low at around 3800 and bounced heavily by recovering almost 200 points on the same day itself to close at 4038 on Thursday. On Friday nifty opened with a huge gap up influenced by global market and closed to gain more than 5%.
It is true that in a bear market there would be sharp dead cat bounces, but last week bounce doesn't seems to be dead cat bounce rather a live cat bounce. Such behaviours confuses even a seasoned trader. One day it falls as if the sky is falling and the other day moves up as if sky is the limit.
For week starting 22 Sep'08 we can expect some interesting and important things to happen. This week may be important for the reason that this week's action will give some guidance on the direction of the trend in near future. Either the ongoing momentum can continue to break past the important resistances or it may fall due to possible profit booking at higher levels and breach the establish support last week at around 3800 to a new low.
Due to those extreme happenings, US market had a very volatile trading sessions throughout the week and in the same time it has not failed to influence the world market to dance to its tunes. Nifty also traded in a wide range with 3800 on the lower side and 4263 on the higher side for the week. Nifty touched its previous July'08 low at around 3800 and bounced heavily by recovering almost 200 points on the same day itself to close at 4038 on Thursday. On Friday nifty opened with a huge gap up influenced by global market and closed to gain more than 5%.
It is true that in a bear market there would be sharp dead cat bounces, but last week bounce doesn't seems to be dead cat bounce rather a live cat bounce. Such behaviours confuses even a seasoned trader. One day it falls as if the sky is falling and the other day moves up as if sky is the limit.
For week starting 22 Sep'08 we can expect some interesting and important things to happen. This week may be important for the reason that this week's action will give some guidance on the direction of the trend in near future. Either the ongoing momentum can continue to break past the important resistances or it may fall due to possible profit booking at higher levels and breach the establish support last week at around 3800 to a new low.
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