Yesterday nifty opened weak by a huge gap down of around 100 points. During the day nifty defended the 2500 mark by testing that level couple of times and pulled back after testing and that is a positive sign at least for yesterday. There was intraday volatility within a narrow gap and ultimately nifty closed near the day’s high without filling the gap created in the opening.
There was once again a massive sell off in the US market which has resulted in the loss of around 5-7% in their indices. Asian markets also have opened and trading weak in negative region. Expect nifty also to open weak. Intraday surprises can be anticipated for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2589 or 2626 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2509 or 2466 levels. It is likely that nifty may take support near 2486 level which is a critical Fibonacci support level and breaching of which can easily take nifty towards the October low. As we are repeatedly indicating that the indices have entered oversold region, nifty may give a surprise pull back anytime and close positive at least for a day or two before it can fall back to lower levels
Happy Trading !
Showing posts with label Fibonacci. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fibonacci. Show all posts
Friday, November 21, 2008
Thursday, November 20, 2008
20 Nov'08: At Critical Support Level
Nifty opened positive by taking cues from the US market. During the day nifty formed double top at the day’s high of 2772 which attracted the long position holders to liquidate their positions and also invited fresh shorts which had eventually brought the nifty towards the day’s low without looking back. Nifty closed at 2635 which is closer to our mentioned critical support level of 2642.
There was a massive sell off in the US market which has resulted in the loss of around 5-7% in their indices. Asian markets also have opened and trading weak in negative region. Expect nifty also to open weak, possibly with a mild gap down. Intraday surprises can be anticipated for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2675 or 2732 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2578 or 2521 levels. In worst case scenario nifty should take support near 2486 level which is a critical Fibonacci support level and breaching of which can easily take nifty towards the October low. As we are repeatedly indicating that the indices have entered oversold region, nifty may give a surprise pull back anytime.
Happy Trading !
There was a massive sell off in the US market which has resulted in the loss of around 5-7% in their indices. Asian markets also have opened and trading weak in negative region. Expect nifty also to open weak, possibly with a mild gap down. Intraday surprises can be anticipated for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2675 or 2732 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2578 or 2521 levels. In worst case scenario nifty should take support near 2486 level which is a critical Fibonacci support level and breaching of which can easily take nifty towards the October low. As we are repeatedly indicating that the indices have entered oversold region, nifty may give a surprise pull back anytime.
Happy Trading !
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
18 Nov'08: Pull Back
Nifty opened mild positive as we had expected and fell into the negative region in no time. Nifty breached the important Fibonacci support level with ease and made the day’s low very close to our mentioned support level of 2683 from where it had bounced very sharply with a great momentum which took the nifty into the positive region. At the end of the day nifty closed with mild negative.
Once again US market closed very weak with their indices around 2-3% down in fear or recession worries. Asian markets have opened and trading weak. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild negative. Intraday volatility can be expected for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2859 or 2918 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2717 or 2635 levels. Today it will be decided whether nifty will continue its pull back trend which started in the second half of yesterday’s session or move downwards to test our second support level. With yesterday’s move nifty has entered the oversold region and a pull back may come in anytime.
Happy Trading !
Once again US market closed very weak with their indices around 2-3% down in fear or recession worries. Asian markets have opened and trading weak. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild negative. Intraday volatility can be expected for the day.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2859 or 2918 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2717 or 2635 levels. Today it will be decided whether nifty will continue its pull back trend which started in the second half of yesterday’s session or move downwards to test our second support level. With yesterday’s move nifty has entered the oversold region and a pull back may come in anytime.
Happy Trading !
Monday, November 17, 2008
17 Nov'08: Will 50% Retracement Holds?
As we expected on Friday nifty opened strong with a gap up of about 90 points closer to the mentioned first resistance level. But nifty could not sustain at that high level and fell to fill the initial gap created. For the rest of the day nifty traded sideways in a choppy manner and closed below the previous week’s low.
US market closed very weak with their indices around 3-5% down. Asian markets have opened and trading mixed. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild positive.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2907 or 3003 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2747 or 2683 levels. A mild pull back can be expected near the first support level with coincides with Fibonacci 50% retracement.
Happy Trading !
US market closed very weak with their indices around 3-5% down. Asian markets have opened and trading mixed. Nifty is expected to open flat to mild positive.
On the upper side nifty may find resistance near 2907 or 3003 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists near 2747 or 2683 levels. A mild pull back can be expected near the first support level with coincides with Fibonacci 50% retracement.
Happy Trading !
Monday, September 29, 2008
29 Sep'08: Expect Rubber Band Effect
As we have mentioned in the last update, on Friday nifty took the Asian market cue and opened weak and closed at the weakest point. During the day nifty breached all the important support levels and closed at the lowest point of the day. More importantly it has closed below 4000 mark which is considered to be an important psychological support level.
US market closed mixed and Asian markets also trading mixed. With $700B bail out package through, US-India nuclear deal almost through and India-France nuclear deal to be signed on Tuesday, our market may rejoice and bounce from its last week low for a day or two.
By closing below 4000, nifty has made its weekly chart to be weak which was showing some signs of bottomed out last week. As nifty closed closer to the important Fibonacci support level, mild to strong bounce back may be expected from the current level. On the upper side nifty may find resistance at 4048, 4074 or 4097 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists at 3934, 3919 or 3800 levels. Any strong up move may find strong resistance in the range of 4201 to 4239.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
US market closed mixed and Asian markets also trading mixed. With $700B bail out package through, US-India nuclear deal almost through and India-France nuclear deal to be signed on Tuesday, our market may rejoice and bounce from its last week low for a day or two.
By closing below 4000, nifty has made its weekly chart to be weak which was showing some signs of bottomed out last week. As nifty closed closer to the important Fibonacci support level, mild to strong bounce back may be expected from the current level. On the upper side nifty may find resistance at 4048, 4074 or 4097 levels. Similarly on the lower side support exists at 3934, 3919 or 3800 levels. Any strong up move may find strong resistance in the range of 4201 to 4239.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Friday, September 26, 2008
26 Sep'08: Technical Analysis Works
The action of the market speaks for itself about whatever predictions we made yesterday. As we expected, market opened weak and fell unidirectionally towards and closer to the mentioned support of 4069 where it took support and has made its day low at 4077. One interesting point to be noted was that, during the bounce back from the day’s low nifty tried several times to break past the level of 4129 but finally failed only to fall back towards the psychological support level of 4100. Technically and interestingly in the intraday chart, 4129 happens to be a strong Fibonacci resistance level.
Yesterday also “IT” stocks continued to get hammered and IT(s) index was down by 2.8%. Towards the closing of the market, nifty showed some strength by bouncing sharply from the day’s support level which may be part of expiry day drama or a genuine strength which will be validated in a couple of day’s session.
US market closed strong and Asian markets opened and trading weak. We have see to which global cue nifty will be responding for the day. My feeling is that Asian market cue may have more impact on our market than that of US’s as its moves are deceptive sometimes. Everyone is keen and interested to see how the October series will be in this bearish environment.
By closing above 4100 nifty has opened some hope among traders for a bounce back. On the upper side, nifty may find resistance near 4163, 4190 or 4215 levels. Similarly on the lower side nifty may find support around 4067 or 4051 levels. In the daily chart nifty shows some weakness whereas in weekly chart it shows signs of bottoming out. We have to wait for some more sessions to see in which direction market is going to pan out.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
Yesterday also “IT” stocks continued to get hammered and IT(s) index was down by 2.8%. Towards the closing of the market, nifty showed some strength by bouncing sharply from the day’s support level which may be part of expiry day drama or a genuine strength which will be validated in a couple of day’s session.
US market closed strong and Asian markets opened and trading weak. We have see to which global cue nifty will be responding for the day. My feeling is that Asian market cue may have more impact on our market than that of US’s as its moves are deceptive sometimes. Everyone is keen and interested to see how the October series will be in this bearish environment.
By closing above 4100 nifty has opened some hope among traders for a bounce back. On the upper side, nifty may find resistance near 4163, 4190 or 4215 levels. Similarly on the lower side nifty may find support around 4067 or 4051 levels. In the daily chart nifty shows some weakness whereas in weekly chart it shows signs of bottoming out. We have to wait for some more sessions to see in which direction market is going to pan out.
SUN OUTAGE: Between 24th Sep.’08 to 8th Oct’08 market will remain closed between 11 25 hrs to 12 10 hrs due to sun outage and market will close at 16 15 hrs instead of 15 30 hrs.
Happy Trading !
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